RESEARCH / VERSION 1.1 / 16 OCTOBER 2026
Conditional UK drug-market scenarios
A transparent calculation with explicit assumptions.
UK scenario = six-drug England subtotal × (UK population / England population) + cannabis England-and-Wales model × (UK population / England-and-Wales population).
| Case | England six drugs (£bn) | Cannabis E&W (£bn) | Calculated UK scenario (£bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central / lower cannabis | 12.0 | 2.3 | 16.75 |
| Central / alternative cannabis | 12.0 | 3.6 | 18.21 |
| Lower arithmetic stress test | 7.1 | 2.3 | 10.96 |
| Upper arithmetic stress test | 16.9 | 3.6 | 23.99 |
Inputs: UK population 69,483,900; England 58,834,800; Wales 3,175,200, all mid-2025 estimates released 1 October 2026. Two decimals show arithmetic, not accuracy to £10 million. Equal per-resident spending is assumed outside observed geographies; mixed drug-data periods are not harmonised.
The alternative cannabis models and ±£4.9bn six-drug sensitivity input do not establish a UK confidence interval. These are conditional scenarios, not 2026 forecasts, observed receipts, proven minima or maxima.
Home Office inputs: section 2.4 · ONS population inputs: Table 1 · Download inputs and calculated values · Download reproducible Python calculation