{
  "id": "economy",
  "title": "The illegal drugs economy",
  "release": "2026-10-14",
  "coverage": "7 sourced estimate and method records. Different measures, years and geographies; repeated estimates are not independent observations.",
  "method": "Retail expenditure, profit, gross value added and social costs are different measures. We do not add them together, average incompatible estimates or infer present-day market value by applying inflation alone. Publication date and reference year are separate. A later document repeating an earlier estimate is not an independent measurement. Coverage, assumptions and the relationship between estimates are recorded explicitly.",
  "method_notes": [
    "Publication dates do not update an estimate’s reference year. Dependent/repeated estimates remain identified. No current UK total is manufactured from incompatible estimates."
  ],
  "update_note": "Fixed release; original source dates and review scope are shown per record.",
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "economy-ho-2003-uk",
      "title": "UK retail market, 2003/04",
      "summary": "Baseline estimate: £5.271bn; source rounds its range to £4.0–£6.6bn.",
      "category": "Retail spending",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2003/04",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Retail spending"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "5.271 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2006-11-23"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2003/04"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cannabis Amphetamines Ecstasy Powder cocaine Crack cocaine Heroin"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Demand-side model combining school, household and arrestee surveys, with assumed consumption, prices and purity. UK estimates scale the England and Wales model."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2003-04"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "baseline"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reported range",
          "value": "4–6.6 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: UK baseline",
          "value": "5.271 GBP billion; United Kingdom; baseline; range 4–6.6"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: England and Wales baseline",
          "value": "4.645 GBP billion; England and Wales; geographical subset; range 3.5–5.8"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: UK arrestee under-reporting adjustment",
          "value": "5.639 GBP billion; United Kingdom; sensitivity variant. The adjustment was not extended to non-arrestee groups."
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "The three variants share one study. They overlap and must not be added."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "Published rounded margin-of-error range, incorporating modelling assumptions; not a new CLA confidence interval."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7b5e2540f0b64646935b11/hoor1606.pdf",
          "title": "Home Office Online Report 16/06: Measuring different aspects of problem drug use, second edition",
          "locator": "Chapter 4, printed p.46, Table S4.1 (PDF p.53); methodology p.47"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Historical model. Assumption and sampling uncertainty are substantial; changes from the 1998 study are not a clean time trend.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ho-2003-uk",
        "title": "UK retail market, 2003/04",
        "summary": "Baseline estimate: £5.271bn; source rounds its range to £4.0–£6.6bn.",
        "measure": "Retail spending",
        "value": 5.271,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2003/04",
        "substances": [
          "Cannabis",
          "Amphetamines",
          "Ecstasy",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Heroin"
        ],
        "method": "Demand-side model combining school, household and arrestee surveys, with assumed consumption, prices and purity. UK estimates scale the England and Wales model.",
        "limitations": "Historical model. Assumption and sampling uncertainty are substantial; changes from the 1998 study are not a clean time trend.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7b5e2540f0b64646935b11/hoor1606.pdf",
        "source_title": "Home Office Online Report 16/06: Measuring different aspects of problem drug use, second edition",
        "source_locator": "Chapter 4, printed p.46, Table S4.1 (PDF p.53); methodology p.47",
        "publication_date": "2006-11-23",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2003-04",
        "relationship": "baseline",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": 4,
        "upper_value": 6.6,
        "uncertainty": "Published rounded margin-of-error range, incorporating modelling assumptions; not a new CLA confidence interval.",
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "variants": [
          {
            "id": "uk-baseline",
            "title": "UK baseline",
            "value": 5.271,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "United Kingdom",
            "lower_value": 4,
            "upper_value": 6.6,
            "relationship": "baseline"
          },
          {
            "id": "england-wales-baseline",
            "title": "England and Wales baseline",
            "value": 4.645,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "England and Wales",
            "lower_value": 3.5,
            "upper_value": 5.8,
            "relationship": "geographical subset"
          },
          {
            "id": "uk-underreporting-adjustment",
            "title": "UK arrestee under-reporting adjustment",
            "value": 5.639,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "United Kingdom",
            "lower_value": null,
            "upper_value": null,
            "relationship": "sensitivity variant",
            "note": "The adjustment was not extended to non-arrestee groups."
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "The three variants share one study. They overlap and must not be added."
      },
      "highlights": [
        "5.271 GBP billion",
        "2003/04"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-black-2016-total",
      "title": "England and Wales retail market, 2016/17",
      "summary": "The review reports approximately £9.4bn of consumer spending.",
      "category": "Retail spending",
      "geography": "England and Wales",
      "period": "2016/17",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Retail spending"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "9.4 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2020-02-27"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2016/17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Opiates Crack cocaine Powder cocaine Cannabis Ecstasy"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Published demand-side calculation combining estimated user numbers with annual consumption frequency, quantities and prices."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2016-17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Opiates",
          "value": "3.8 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Cannabis",
          "value": "2.4 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Powder cocaine",
          "value": "1.9 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Crack cocaine",
          "value": "1.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Ecstasy",
          "value": "0.04 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "These rounded components are already included in the total and are not independent estimates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
          "title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
          "locator": "Slides 61–62 (PDF pages 62–63)"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "2016/17 England and Wales estimate, not current UK turnover or criminal profit. Underlying Home Office revenue analysis was unpublished; uncertainty interval not supplied.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-black-2016-total",
        "title": "England and Wales retail market, 2016/17",
        "summary": "The review reports approximately £9.4bn of consumer spending.",
        "measure": "Retail spending",
        "value": 9.4,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England and Wales",
        "reference_period": "2016/17",
        "substances": [
          "Opiates",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Cannabis",
          "Ecstasy"
        ],
        "method": "Published demand-side calculation combining estimated user numbers with annual consumption frequency, quantities and prices.",
        "limitations": "2016/17 England and Wales estimate, not current UK turnover or criminal profit. Underlying Home Office revenue analysis was unpublished; uncertainty interval not supplied.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
        "source_title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
        "source_locator": "Slides 61–62 (PDF pages 62–63)",
        "publication_date": "2020-02-27",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2016-17",
        "relationship": "total",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Opiates",
            "value": 3.8,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Cannabis",
            "value": 2.4,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Powder cocaine",
            "value": 1.9,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Crack cocaine",
            "value": 1.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Ecstasy",
            "value": 0.04,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "These rounded components are already included in the total and are not independent estimates.",
        "components_source_locator": "Slide 62, Total spend column (PDF page 63)"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "9.4 GBP billion",
        "2016/17"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-phe-2017-harms",
      "title": "Social and economic harms, England 2017/18",
      "summary": "PHE’s analysis places annual harms at £19.3bn.",
      "category": "Social and economic cost",
      "geography": "England",
      "period": "2017/18",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Social and economic cost"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "19.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2020-02-27"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2017/18"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Illicit drugs"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Cost-of-harms analysis including crime, enforcement, deaths, treatment and prevention."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "phe-costs-2017-18"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
          "title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
          "locator": "Slide 14 (PDF page 15)"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Not consumer spending, government spending alone, profit, or GDP. Underlying PHE analysis unpublished; no uncertainty interval supplied.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-phe-2017-harms",
        "title": "Social and economic harms, England 2017/18",
        "summary": "PHE’s analysis places annual harms at £19.3bn.",
        "measure": "Social and economic cost",
        "value": 19.3,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England",
        "reference_period": "2017/18",
        "substances": [
          "Illicit drugs"
        ],
        "method": "Cost-of-harms analysis including crime, enforcement, deaths, treatment and prevention.",
        "limitations": "Not consumer spending, government spending alone, profit, or GDP. Underlying PHE analysis unpublished; no uncertainty interval supplied.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
        "source_title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
        "source_locator": "Slide 14 (PDF page 15)",
        "publication_date": "2020-02-27",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "phe-costs-2017-18",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "19.3 GBP billion",
        "2017/18"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ons-2010-gdp",
      "title": "Drugs in UK GDP, 2010",
      "summary": "ONS reported the drugs adjustment as 0.24% of GDP.",
      "category": "GDP contribution",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2010",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "GDP contribution"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "0.24 % of GDP"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "% of GDP"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2015-11-06"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2010"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Drugs category in national accounts"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "National accounts production-side adjustment reported in an ONS FOI response."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "ons-n2-2015-vintage"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/illegalproductionn2",
          "title": "ONS: Illegal Production (N2)",
          "locator": "We said, Drugs % of GDP"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Historical 2015 data vintage; revisions are possible. GDP/value added differs from retail turnover. The £9.097bn total on this source includes prostitution and is not a drug-only total.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ons-2010-gdp",
        "title": "Drugs in UK GDP, 2010",
        "summary": "ONS reported the drugs adjustment as 0.24% of GDP.",
        "measure": "GDP contribution",
        "value": 0.24,
        "unit": "% of GDP",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2010",
        "substances": [
          "Drugs category in national accounts"
        ],
        "method": "National accounts production-side adjustment reported in an ONS FOI response.",
        "limitations": "Historical 2015 data vintage; revisions are possible. GDP/value added differs from retail turnover. The £9.097bn total on this source includes prostitution and is not a drug-only total.",
        "source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/illegalproductionn2",
        "source_title": "ONS: Illegal Production (N2)",
        "source_locator": "We said, Drugs % of GDP",
        "publication_date": "2015-11-06",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "ons-n2-2015-vintage",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "0.24 % of GDP",
        "2010"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ons-2025-hfce",
      "title": "ONS narcotics consumption expenditure, 2025",
      "summary": "The displayed 30 June 2026 release records £3,058m for 2025.",
      "category": "National accounts household expenditure",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2025",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "National accounts household expenditure"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "3.058 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-06-30"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2025"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "ONS consumer trends series MNC3: current-price, seasonally adjusted expenditure; annual observation."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "ons-mnc3-2026-06-vintage"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc3/ct",
          "title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP SA £m, series MNC3",
          "locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 3058; displayed release 30 June 2026"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Source vintage is 30 June 2026, not claimed to be the newest release. This national accounts series is not interchangeable with the Home Office market model. Do not interpret the difference as a measured market decline. Underlying methodology is not re-estimated by CLA.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ons-2025-hfce",
        "title": "ONS narcotics consumption expenditure, 2025",
        "summary": "The displayed 30 June 2026 release records £3,058m for 2025.",
        "measure": "National accounts household expenditure",
        "value": 3.058,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2025",
        "substances": [
          "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        ],
        "method": "ONS consumer trends series MNC3: current-price, seasonally adjusted expenditure; annual observation.",
        "limitations": "Source vintage is 30 June 2026, not claimed to be the newest release. This national accounts series is not interchangeable with the Home Office market model. Do not interpret the difference as a measured market decline. Underlying methodology is not re-estimated by CLA.",
        "source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc3/ct",
        "source_title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP SA £m, series MNC3",
        "source_locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 3058; displayed release 30 June 2026",
        "publication_date": "2026-06-30",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "ons-mnc3-2026-06-vintage",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "3.058 GBP billion",
        "2025"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ho-2025-confirmation",
      "title": "Home Office confirms the existing estimate, 2025",
      "summary": "The minister points back to the Black review for cannabis, cocaine and opiates.",
      "category": "Source status / repeated estimate",
      "geography": "England and Wales",
      "period": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)",
      "status": "Repeats earlier estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Source status / repeated estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "No new numerical estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "No new estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2025-09-11"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cannabis Powder cocaine Crack cocaine Opiates"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Parliamentary written answer, confirming the source of the department’s most recent estimate as at 11 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2016-17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "repeat confirmation"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "economy-black-2016-total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-08-29/71709",
          "title": "UK Parliament: written question 71709",
          "locator": "Answer by Sarah Jones, 11 September 2025"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "This answer adds no independently modelled market estimate. It does not establish that no other estimate appeared after its answer date.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ho-2025-confirmation",
        "title": "Home Office confirms the existing estimate, 2025",
        "summary": "The minister points back to the Black review for cannabis, cocaine and opiates.",
        "measure": "Source status / repeated estimate",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "No new estimate",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "England and Wales",
        "reference_period": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)",
        "substances": [
          "Cannabis",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Opiates"
        ],
        "method": "Parliamentary written answer, confirming the source of the department’s most recent estimate as at 11 September 2025.",
        "limitations": "This answer adds no independently modelled market estimate. It does not establish that no other estimate appeared after its answer date.",
        "source_url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-08-29/71709",
        "source_title": "UK Parliament: written question 71709",
        "source_locator": "Answer by Sarah Jones, 11 September 2025",
        "publication_date": "2025-09-11",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2016-17",
        "relationship": "repeat confirmation",
        "parent_estimate_id": "economy-black-2016-total",
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "No new numerical estimate",
        "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)"
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-nca-2026-context",
      "title": "NCA’s 2026 assessment: market context",
      "summary": "The NCA describes drug markets as expanding and generating billions annually.",
      "category": "Qualitative threat assessment",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2025 assessed in 2026",
      "status": "Context / method record",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Qualitative threat assessment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "No new numerical estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "No quantified annual market total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-03"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2025 assessed in 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Illicit drugs"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "National intelligence assessment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "nca-nsa-2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-overview-of-soc-2026/nsa-summary-2026",
          "title": "NCA: National Strategic Assessment 2026, Summary",
          "locator": "SOC Impact on the UK → Impact on Communities"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Useful contextual evidence, not a reproducible pound-value estimate. No monetary point estimate is inferred from the description.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-nca-2026-context",
        "title": "NCA’s 2026 assessment: market context",
        "summary": "The NCA describes drug markets as expanding and generating billions annually.",
        "measure": "Qualitative threat assessment",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "No quantified annual market total",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2025 assessed in 2026",
        "substances": [
          "Illicit drugs"
        ],
        "method": "National intelligence assessment.",
        "limitations": "Useful contextual evidence, not a reproducible pound-value estimate. No monetary point estimate is inferred from the description.",
        "source_url": "https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-overview-of-soc-2026/nsa-summary-2026",
        "source_title": "NCA: National Strategic Assessment 2026, Summary",
        "source_locator": "SOC Impact on the UK → Impact on Communities",
        "publication_date": "2026-03",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "nca-nsa-2026",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "No new numerical estimate",
        "2025 assessed in 2026"
      ]
    }
  ]
}