{
  "id": "economy",
  "title": "The illegal drugs economy",
  "creator": "Civil Liberties Action",
  "release": "2026-10-20",
  "version": "1.2",
  "canonical_url": "https://civillibertiesaction.org.uk/pages/illegal-drugs-economy-evidence",
  "version_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/economy-research.html",
  "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy [Dataset]. Version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/economy-research.html",
  "reuse_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/reuse.html",
  "coverage": "11 sourced estimate and method records. Different measures, years and geographies; repeated estimates are not independent observations.",
  "method": "Retail expenditure, profit, gross value added and social costs are different measures. We do not add them together, average incompatible estimates or infer present-day market value by applying inflation alone. Publication date and reference year are separate. A later document repeating an earlier estimate is not an independent measurement. Coverage, assumptions and the relationship between estimates are recorded explicitly.",
  "method_notes": [
    "Publication dates do not update an estimate’s reference year. Dependent/repeated estimates remain identified. No current UK total is manufactured from incompatible estimates.",
    "The proceeds study reports ±£4.9bn for the six-drug subtotal. Its statistical interpretation is unresolved. CLA does not use it to set UK scenario bounds in version 1.2. Individual drug intervals cannot simply be added to establish a combined 95% interval.",
    "The published annexes describe the wastewater methodology, but the underlying NCA retail price and purity inputs and calculation code are not publicly available. The workbook and accompanying script reproduce CLA’s population extrapolations from published values; they do not reproduce or independently validate the underlying WAND consumption and valuation models.",
    "The earlier reference year in the proceeds study is an assumption; CLA is seeking clarification of its evidential basis."
  ],
  "update_note": "We have removed the wider arithmetic stress range from the summary and current scenario table while seeking clarification of the aggregate uncertainty margin published in the Home Office’s proceeds-of-crime study. The source figures remain unchanged. CLA’s UK extrapolations remain conditional illustrations. We have clarified which calculations can be reproduced from public information; the available evidence still does not establish a complete, consistently measured UK total.",
  "records": [
    {
      "id": "economy-ho-2003-uk",
      "title": "UK retail market, 2003/04",
      "summary": "Baseline estimate: £5.271bn; source rounds its range to £4.0–£6.6bn.",
      "category": "Retail spending",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2003/04",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Retail spending"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "5.271 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2006-11-23"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2003/04"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cannabis Amphetamines Ecstasy Powder cocaine Crack cocaine Heroin"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Demand-side model combining school, household and arrestee surveys, with assumed consumption, prices and purity. UK estimates scale the England and Wales model."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2003-04"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "baseline"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reported range",
          "value": "4–6.6 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: UK baseline",
          "value": "5.271 GBP billion; United Kingdom; baseline; range 4–6.6"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: England and Wales baseline",
          "value": "4.645 GBP billion; England and Wales; geographical subset; range 3.5–5.8"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: UK arrestee under-reporting adjustment",
          "value": "5.639 GBP billion; United Kingdom; sensitivity variant. The adjustment was not extended to non-arrestee groups."
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "The three variants share one study. They overlap and must not be added."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "Published rounded margin-of-error range, incorporating modelling assumptions; not a new CLA confidence interval."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7b5e2540f0b64646935b11/hoor1606.pdf",
          "title": "Home Office Online Report 16/06: Measuring different aspects of problem drug use, second edition",
          "locator": "Chapter 4, printed p.46, Table S4.1 (PDF p.53); methodology p.47"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Historical model. Assumption and sampling uncertainty are substantial; changes from the 1998 study are not a clean time trend.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ho-2003-uk",
        "title": "UK retail market, 2003/04",
        "summary": "Baseline estimate: £5.271bn; source rounds its range to £4.0–£6.6bn.",
        "measure": "Retail spending",
        "value": 5.271,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2003/04",
        "substances": [
          "Cannabis",
          "Amphetamines",
          "Ecstasy",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Heroin"
        ],
        "method": "Demand-side model combining school, household and arrestee surveys, with assumed consumption, prices and purity. UK estimates scale the England and Wales model.",
        "limitations": "Historical model. Assumption and sampling uncertainty are substantial; changes from the 1998 study are not a clean time trend.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5a7b5e2540f0b64646935b11/hoor1606.pdf",
        "source_title": "Home Office Online Report 16/06: Measuring different aspects of problem drug use, second edition",
        "source_locator": "Chapter 4, printed p.46, Table S4.1 (PDF p.53); methodology p.47",
        "publication_date": "2006-11-23",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2003-04",
        "relationship": "baseline",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": 4,
        "upper_value": 6.6,
        "uncertainty": "Published rounded margin-of-error range, incorporating modelling assumptions; not a new CLA confidence interval.",
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "variants": [
          {
            "id": "uk-baseline",
            "title": "UK baseline",
            "value": 5.271,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "United Kingdom",
            "lower_value": 4,
            "upper_value": 6.6,
            "relationship": "baseline"
          },
          {
            "id": "england-wales-baseline",
            "title": "England and Wales baseline",
            "value": 4.645,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "England and Wales",
            "lower_value": 3.5,
            "upper_value": 5.8,
            "relationship": "geographical subset"
          },
          {
            "id": "uk-underreporting-adjustment",
            "title": "UK arrestee under-reporting adjustment",
            "value": 5.639,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "United Kingdom",
            "lower_value": null,
            "upper_value": null,
            "relationship": "sensitivity variant",
            "note": "The adjustment was not extended to non-arrestee groups."
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "The three variants share one study. They overlap and must not be added."
      },
      "highlights": [
        "5.271 GBP billion",
        "2003/04"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-2003-uk.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: UK retail market, 2003/04. Record economy-ho-2003-uk, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-2003-uk.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-black-2016-total",
      "title": "England and Wales retail market, 2016/17",
      "summary": "The review reports approximately £9.4bn of consumer spending.",
      "category": "Retail spending",
      "geography": "England and Wales",
      "period": "2016/17",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Retail spending"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "9.4 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2020-02-27"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2016/17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Opiates Crack cocaine Powder cocaine Cannabis Ecstasy"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Published demand-side calculation combining estimated user numbers with annual consumption frequency, quantities and prices."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2016-17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Opiates",
          "value": "3.8 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Cannabis",
          "value": "2.4 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Powder cocaine",
          "value": "1.9 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Crack cocaine",
          "value": "1.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Ecstasy",
          "value": "0.04 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "These rounded components are already included in the total and are not independent estimates."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
          "title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
          "locator": "Slides 61–62 (PDF pages 62–63)"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "2016/17 England and Wales estimate, not current UK turnover or criminal profit. Underlying Home Office revenue analysis was unpublished; uncertainty interval not supplied.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-black-2016-total",
        "title": "England and Wales retail market, 2016/17",
        "summary": "The review reports approximately £9.4bn of consumer spending.",
        "measure": "Retail spending",
        "value": 9.4,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England and Wales",
        "reference_period": "2016/17",
        "substances": [
          "Opiates",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Cannabis",
          "Ecstasy"
        ],
        "method": "Published demand-side calculation combining estimated user numbers with annual consumption frequency, quantities and prices.",
        "limitations": "2016/17 England and Wales estimate, not current UK turnover or criminal profit. Underlying Home Office revenue analysis was unpublished; uncertainty interval not supplied.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
        "source_title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
        "source_locator": "Slides 61–62 (PDF pages 62–63)",
        "publication_date": "2020-02-27",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2016-17",
        "relationship": "total",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Opiates",
            "value": 3.8,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Cannabis",
            "value": 2.4,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Powder cocaine",
            "value": 1.9,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Crack cocaine",
            "value": 1.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Ecstasy",
            "value": 0.04,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "These rounded components are already included in the total and are not independent estimates.",
        "components_source_locator": "Slide 62, Total spend column (PDF page 63)"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "9.4 GBP billion",
        "2016/17"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-black-2016-total.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: England and Wales retail market, 2016/17. Record economy-black-2016-total, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-black-2016-total.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-phe-2017-harms",
      "title": "Social and economic harms, England 2017/18",
      "summary": "PHE’s analysis places annual harms at £19.3bn.",
      "category": "Social and economic cost",
      "geography": "England",
      "period": "2017/18",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Social and economic cost"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "19.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2020-02-27"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2017/18"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Illicit drugs"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Cost-of-harms analysis including crime, enforcement, deaths, treatment and prevention."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "phe-costs-2017-18"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
          "title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
          "locator": "Slide 14 (PDF page 15)"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Not consumer spending, government spending alone, profit, or GDP. Underlying PHE analysis unpublished; no uncertainty interval supplied.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-phe-2017-harms",
        "title": "Social and economic harms, England 2017/18",
        "summary": "PHE’s analysis places annual harms at £19.3bn.",
        "measure": "Social and economic cost",
        "value": 19.3,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England",
        "reference_period": "2017/18",
        "substances": [
          "Illicit drugs"
        ],
        "method": "Cost-of-harms analysis including crime, enforcement, deaths, treatment and prevention.",
        "limitations": "Not consumer spending, government spending alone, profit, or GDP. Underlying PHE analysis unpublished; no uncertainty interval supplied.",
        "source_url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eafffedd3bf7f65363e4fda/Review_of_Drugs_Evidence_Pack.pdf",
        "source_title": "Dame Carol Black: Review of Drugs, evidence pack (Home Office/PHE analysis)",
        "source_locator": "Slide 14 (PDF page 15)",
        "publication_date": "2020-02-27",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "phe-costs-2017-18",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "19.3 GBP billion",
        "2017/18"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-phe-2017-harms.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Social and economic harms, England 2017/18. Record economy-phe-2017-harms, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-phe-2017-harms.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ons-2010-gdp",
      "title": "Drugs in UK GDP, 2010",
      "summary": "ONS reported the drugs adjustment as 0.24% of GDP.",
      "category": "GDP contribution",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2010",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "GDP contribution"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "0.24 % of GDP"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "% of GDP"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2015-11-06"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2010"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Drugs category in national accounts"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "National accounts production-side adjustment reported in an ONS FOI response."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "ons-n2-2015-vintage"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/illegalproductionn2",
          "title": "ONS: Illegal Production (N2)",
          "locator": "We said, Drugs % of GDP"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Historical 2015 data vintage; revisions are possible. GDP/value added differs from retail turnover. The £9.097bn total on this source includes prostitution and is not a drug-only total.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ons-2010-gdp",
        "title": "Drugs in UK GDP, 2010",
        "summary": "ONS reported the drugs adjustment as 0.24% of GDP.",
        "measure": "GDP contribution",
        "value": 0.24,
        "unit": "% of GDP",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2010",
        "substances": [
          "Drugs category in national accounts"
        ],
        "method": "National accounts production-side adjustment reported in an ONS FOI response.",
        "limitations": "Historical 2015 data vintage; revisions are possible. GDP/value added differs from retail turnover. The £9.097bn total on this source includes prostitution and is not a drug-only total.",
        "source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/illegalproductionn2",
        "source_title": "ONS: Illegal Production (N2)",
        "source_locator": "We said, Drugs % of GDP",
        "publication_date": "2015-11-06",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "ons-n2-2015-vintage",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "0.24 % of GDP",
        "2010"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2010-gdp.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Drugs in UK GDP, 2010. Record economy-ons-2010-gdp, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2010-gdp.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ons-2025-hfce",
      "title": "ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — June 2026 vintage",
      "summary": "The displayed 30 June 2026 release records £3,058m for 2025.",
      "category": "National accounts household expenditure",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2025",
      "status": "Historical data vintage",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "National accounts household expenditure"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "3.058 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-06-30"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2025"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "ONS consumer trends series MNC3: current-price, seasonally adjusted expenditure; annual observation."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "ons-household-narcotics"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "superseded data vintage"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc3/ct",
          "title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP SA £m, series MNC3",
          "locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 3058; displayed release 30 June 2026"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Historical June 2026 vintage retained for traceability. The September 2026 annual observation is £2.911bn; see the linked newer record. The original mutable source URL now displays newer data. MNC3 is seasonally adjusted; the report uses non-seasonally-adjusted MNC2. The September annual totals agree. Revisions are not a measured market decline.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ons-2025-hfce",
        "title": "ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — June 2026 vintage",
        "summary": "The displayed 30 June 2026 release records £3,058m for 2025.",
        "measure": "National accounts household expenditure",
        "value": 3.058,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2025",
        "substances": [
          "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        ],
        "method": "ONS consumer trends series MNC3: current-price, seasonally adjusted expenditure; annual observation.",
        "limitations": "Historical June 2026 vintage retained for traceability. The September 2026 annual observation is £2.911bn; see the linked newer record. The original mutable source URL now displays newer data. MNC3 is seasonally adjusted; the report uses non-seasonally-adjusted MNC2. The September annual totals agree. Revisions are not a measured market decline.",
        "source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc3/ct",
        "source_title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP SA £m, series MNC3",
        "source_locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 3058; displayed release 30 June 2026",
        "publication_date": "2026-06-30",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "ons-household-narcotics",
        "relationship": "superseded data vintage",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Nominal/source-period prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "superseded_by": "economy-ons-2025-september"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "3.058 GBP billion",
        "2025"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2025-hfce.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — June 2026 vintage. Record economy-ons-2025-hfce, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2025-hfce.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ho-2025-confirmation",
      "title": "Home Office confirms the existing estimate, 2025",
      "summary": "The minister points back to the Black review for cannabis, cocaine and opiates.",
      "category": "Source status / repeated estimate",
      "geography": "England and Wales",
      "period": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)",
      "status": "Repeats earlier estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Source status / repeated estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "No new numerical estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "No new estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2025-09-11"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cannabis Powder cocaine Crack cocaine Opiates"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Parliamentary written answer, confirming the source of the department’s most recent estimate as at 11 September 2025."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "home-office-2016-17"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "repeat confirmation"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "economy-black-2016-total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-08-29/71709",
          "title": "UK Parliament: written question 71709",
          "locator": "Answer by Sarah Jones, 11 September 2025"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "This answer adds no independently modelled market estimate. It does not establish that no other estimate appeared after its answer date.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ho-2025-confirmation",
        "title": "Home Office confirms the existing estimate, 2025",
        "summary": "The minister points back to the Black review for cannabis, cocaine and opiates.",
        "measure": "Source status / repeated estimate",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "No new estimate",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "England and Wales",
        "reference_period": "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)",
        "substances": [
          "Cannabis",
          "Powder cocaine",
          "Crack cocaine",
          "Opiates"
        ],
        "method": "Parliamentary written answer, confirming the source of the department’s most recent estimate as at 11 September 2025.",
        "limitations": "This answer adds no independently modelled market estimate. It does not establish that no other estimate appeared after its answer date.",
        "source_url": "https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-08-29/71709",
        "source_title": "UK Parliament: written question 71709",
        "source_locator": "Answer by Sarah Jones, 11 September 2025",
        "publication_date": "2025-09-11",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "home-office-2016-17",
        "relationship": "repeat confirmation",
        "parent_estimate_id": "economy-black-2016-total",
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "No new numerical estimate",
        "2016/17 (repeated in 2025)"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-2025-confirmation.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Home Office confirms the existing estimate, 2025. Record economy-ho-2025-confirmation, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-2025-confirmation.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-nca-2026-context",
      "title": "NCA’s 2026 assessment: market context",
      "summary": "The NCA describes drug markets as expanding and generating billions annually.",
      "category": "Qualitative threat assessment",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2025 assessed in 2026",
      "status": "Context / method record",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Qualitative threat assessment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "No new numerical estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "No quantified annual market total"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-03"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2025 assessed in 2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Illicit drugs"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "National intelligence assessment."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "nca-nsa-2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "standalone"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-overview-of-soc-2026/nsa-summary-2026",
          "title": "NCA: National Strategic Assessment 2026, Summary",
          "locator": "SOC Impact on the UK → Impact on Communities"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Useful contextual evidence, not a reproducible pound-value estimate. No monetary point estimate is inferred from the description.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-nca-2026-context",
        "title": "NCA’s 2026 assessment: market context",
        "summary": "The NCA describes drug markets as expanding and generating billions annually.",
        "measure": "Qualitative threat assessment",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "No quantified annual market total",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2025 assessed in 2026",
        "substances": [
          "Illicit drugs"
        ],
        "method": "National intelligence assessment.",
        "limitations": "Useful contextual evidence, not a reproducible pound-value estimate. No monetary point estimate is inferred from the description.",
        "source_url": "https://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/nsa-overview-of-soc-2026/nsa-summary-2026",
        "source_title": "NCA: National Strategic Assessment 2026, Summary",
        "source_locator": "SOC Impact on the UK → Impact on Communities",
        "publication_date": "2026-03",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-14",
        "estimate_family": "nca-nsa-2026",
        "relationship": "standalone",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "No new numerical estimate",
        "2025 assessed in 2026"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-nca-2026-context.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: NCA’s 2026 assessment: market context. Record economy-nca-2026-context, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-nca-2026-context.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ons-2025-september",
      "title": "ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — September 2026 vintage",
      "summary": "ONS records £2.911bn for 2025 in the 30 September 2026 release.",
      "category": "National accounts household expenditure",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "period": "2025",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-16",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "National accounts household expenditure"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "2.911 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Current prices; non-seasonally adjusted annual observation"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-09-30"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "2025"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Consumer trends MNC2: annual current-price, non-seasonally-adjusted household expenditure."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "ons-household-narcotics"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "revised data vintage"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "economy-ons-2025-hfce"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc2/ct",
          "title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP NSA £m, series MNC2",
          "locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 2911; release 30 September 2026"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Accounting estimate, not independently observed retail receipts. Replaces the June vintage in current comparisons; do not average the vintages or interpret the revision as a change in 2025 consumption.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ons-2025-september",
        "title": "ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — September 2026 vintage",
        "summary": "ONS records £2.911bn for 2025 in the 30 September 2026 release.",
        "measure": "National accounts household expenditure",
        "value": 2.911,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "United Kingdom",
        "reference_period": "2025",
        "substances": [
          "Narcotics, COICOP 02.3"
        ],
        "method": "Consumer trends MNC2: annual current-price, non-seasonally-adjusted household expenditure.",
        "limitations": "Accounting estimate, not independently observed retail receipts. Replaces the June vintage in current comparisons; do not average the vintages or interpret the revision as a change in 2025 consumption.",
        "source_url": "https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/satelliteaccounts/timeseries/mnc2/ct",
        "source_title": "ONS: 02.3 Narcotics CP NSA £m, series MNC2",
        "source_locator": "Annual table, 2025 = 2911; release 30 September 2026",
        "publication_date": "2026-09-30",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-16",
        "estimate_family": "ons-household-narcotics",
        "relationship": "revised data vintage",
        "parent_estimate_id": "economy-ons-2025-hfce",
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Current prices; non-seasonally adjusted annual observation",
        "supersedes": "economy-ons-2025-hfce"
      },
      "highlights": [
        "2.911 GBP billion",
        "2025"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2025-september.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: ONS narcotics expenditure, 2025 — September 2026 vintage. Record economy-ons-2025-september, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ons-2025-september.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-wand-2024-25",
      "title": "Six-drug equivalent retail value, England 2024–25",
      "summary": "The six-drug subtotal is £12.0bn. Cannabis is excluded.",
      "category": "Consumption-based equivalent retail value",
      "geography": "England",
      "period": "August 2024–July 2025",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-20",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Consumption-based equivalent retail value"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "12 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Source prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-04-13"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "August 2024–July 2025"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cocaine (including crack) Ketamine Heroin Amphetamine MDMA Methamphetamine"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Wastewater consumption model, extrapolation to England, and NCA retail purity and 2025 prices."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "wand-england-2024-25"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "subtotal"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Cocaine",
          "value": "9.8 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Ketamine",
          "value": "0.9 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Heroin",
          "value": "0.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Amphetamine",
          "value": "0.5 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: MDMA",
          "value": "0.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Methamphetamine",
          "value": "0.2 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "Components are included in the subtotal; cocaine already includes crack."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "The proceeds study reports ±£4.9bn for the six-drug subtotal. Its statistical interpretation is unresolved. CLA does not use it to set UK scenario bounds in version 1.2. Individual drug intervals cannot simply be added to establish a combined 95% interval."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption",
          "title": "Home Office: Wastewater Analysis — Estimating drug consumption",
          "locator": "Section 2.2, Table 1; subtotal and aggregate margin in proceeds study section 2.4 Table 2"
        },
        {
          "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024",
          "title": "Home Office proceeds study",
          "locator": "Section 2.4, Table 2: total £12.0bn and published margin",
          "note": ""
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Experimental valuation. Purchased, gifted and diverted consumption are not separately established as receipts. Do not extend to other nations without explicit assumptions. The underlying NCA retail price/purity inputs and calculation code are not public; CLA’s arithmetic does not independently reproduce the WAND models.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-wand-2024-25",
        "title": "Six-drug equivalent retail value, England 2024–25",
        "summary": "The six-drug subtotal is £12.0bn. Cannabis is excluded.",
        "measure": "Consumption-based equivalent retail value",
        "value": 12,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England",
        "reference_period": "August 2024–July 2025",
        "substances": [
          "Cocaine (including crack)",
          "Ketamine",
          "Heroin",
          "Amphetamine",
          "MDMA",
          "Methamphetamine"
        ],
        "method": "Wastewater consumption model, extrapolation to England, and NCA retail purity and 2025 prices.",
        "limitations": "Experimental valuation. Purchased, gifted and diverted consumption are not separately established as receipts. Do not extend to other nations without explicit assumptions. The underlying NCA retail price/purity inputs and calculation code are not public; CLA’s arithmetic does not independently reproduce the WAND models.",
        "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption",
        "source_title": "Home Office: Wastewater Analysis — Estimating drug consumption",
        "source_locator": "Section 2.2, Table 1; subtotal and aggregate margin in proceeds study section 2.4 Table 2",
        "publication_date": "2026-04-13",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-20",
        "estimate_family": "wand-england-2024-25",
        "relationship": "subtotal",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": "The proceeds study reports ±£4.9bn for the six-drug subtotal. Its statistical interpretation is unresolved. CLA does not use it to set UK scenario bounds in version 1.2. Individual drug intervals cannot simply be added to establish a combined 95% interval.",
        "price_basis": "Source prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Cocaine",
            "value": 9.8,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Ketamine",
            "value": 0.9,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Heroin",
            "value": 0.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Amphetamine",
            "value": 0.5,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "MDMA",
            "value": 0.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Methamphetamine",
            "value": 0.2,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          }
        ],
        "source_updated_at": "2026-10-08",
        "additional_sources": [
          {
            "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024",
            "title": "Home Office proceeds study",
            "locator": "Section 2.4, Table 2: total £12.0bn and published margin"
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "Components are included in the subtotal; cocaine already includes crack."
      },
      "highlights": [
        "12 GBP billion",
        "August 2024–July 2025"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-wand-2024-25.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Six-drug equivalent retail value, England 2024–25. Record economy-wand-2024-25, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-wand-2024-25.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-ho-proceeds-2024",
      "title": "Drug-supply valuation, mixed England / England-and-Wales coverage",
      "summary": "£14.3bn combines the six-drug England subtotal and a separate cannabis model.",
      "category": "Mixed-geography drug-supply valuation",
      "geography": "England for six drugs; England and Wales for cannabis",
      "period": "Labelled year ending March 2024; mixed input periods",
      "status": "Published estimate",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-20",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Mixed-geography drug-supply valuation"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "14.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "Source prices; no CLA inflation adjustment"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-09-15"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "Labelled year ending March 2024; mixed input periods"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Illicit drugs; see scope"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Adds WAND subtotal to survey-model cannabis expenditure."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "wand-plus-cannabis-2024"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "combination containing earlier subtotal"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "economy-wand-2024-25"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: Cannabis CSEW-based model",
          "value": "2.3 GBP billion; England and Wales; included component"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant: Cannabis APMS-based alternative",
          "value": "3.6 GBP billion; England and Wales; alternative component, not additional spending"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Six-drug England subtotal",
          "value": "12 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Component: Cannabis England and Wales",
          "value": "2.3 GBP billion"
        },
        {
          "label": "Variant / component limit",
          "value": "The £3.6bn cannabis alternative substitutes for £2.3bn. These two values are not endpoints of a statistical confidence interval."
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024",
          "title": "Home Office: The proceeds of crime in England and Wales 2023 to 2024",
          "locator": "Section 2.4, Tables 1–2 and section 2.4.1"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Not a full UK total. Later wastewater observations are used as a proxy for the earlier reference year under an assumption in the proceeds study; CLA is seeking clarification of its evidential basis. The six-drug subtotal is already included; do not add it again.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-ho-proceeds-2024",
        "title": "Drug-supply valuation, mixed England / England-and-Wales coverage",
        "summary": "£14.3bn combines the six-drug England subtotal and a separate cannabis model.",
        "measure": "Mixed-geography drug-supply valuation",
        "value": 14.3,
        "unit": "GBP billion",
        "currency": "GBP",
        "geography": "England for six drugs; England and Wales for cannabis",
        "reference_period": "Labelled year ending March 2024; mixed input periods",
        "substances": [
          "Illicit drugs; see scope"
        ],
        "method": "Adds WAND subtotal to survey-model cannabis expenditure.",
        "limitations": "Not a full UK total. Later wastewater observations are used as a proxy for the earlier reference year under an assumption in the proceeds study; CLA is seeking clarification of its evidential basis. The six-drug subtotal is already included; do not add it again.",
        "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024/the-proceeds-of-crime-in-england-and-wales-2023-to-2024",
        "source_title": "Home Office: The proceeds of crime in England and Wales 2023 to 2024",
        "source_locator": "Section 2.4, Tables 1–2 and section 2.4.1",
        "publication_date": "2026-09-15",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-20",
        "estimate_family": "wand-plus-cannabis-2024",
        "relationship": "combination containing earlier subtotal",
        "parent_estimate_id": "economy-wand-2024-25",
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": "Source prices; no CLA inflation adjustment",
        "components": [
          {
            "title": "Six-drug England subtotal",
            "value": 12,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          },
          {
            "title": "Cannabis England and Wales",
            "value": 2.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion"
          }
        ],
        "variants": [
          {
            "id": "cannabis-csew",
            "title": "Cannabis CSEW-based model",
            "value": 2.3,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "England and Wales",
            "relationship": "included component"
          },
          {
            "id": "cannabis-apms",
            "title": "Cannabis APMS-based alternative",
            "value": 3.6,
            "unit": "GBP billion",
            "geography": "England and Wales",
            "relationship": "alternative component, not additional spending"
          }
        ],
        "subestimate_note": "The £3.6bn cannabis alternative substitutes for £2.3bn. These two values are not endpoints of a statistical confidence interval."
      },
      "highlights": [
        "14.3 GBP billion",
        "Labelled year ending March 2024; mixed input periods"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-proceeds-2024.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Drug-supply valuation, mixed England / England-and-Wales coverage. Record economy-ho-proceeds-2024, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-ho-proceeds-2024.html"
    },
    {
      "id": "economy-wand-trends-2026",
      "title": "Wastewater trends at 16 English sites, 2021–26",
      "summary": "The October release extends consumption trends, without a new national monetary valuation.",
      "category": "Consumption trend / method update",
      "geography": "16 consistently monitored English sites",
      "period": "January–April sampling windows, 2021–2026",
      "status": "Context / method record",
      "reviewed_at": "2026-10-16",
      "details": [
        {
          "label": "Measure",
          "value": "Consumption trend / method update"
        },
        {
          "label": "Value",
          "value": "No new numerical estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Currency / price basis",
          "value": "No new monetary estimate"
        },
        {
          "label": "Publication date",
          "value": "2026-10-14"
        },
        {
          "label": "Reference period",
          "value": "January–April sampling windows, 2021–2026"
        },
        {
          "label": "Substances covered",
          "value": "Cocaine Ketamine Heroin Amphetamine MDMA Methamphetamine"
        },
        {
          "label": "Method",
          "value": "Repeated-site wastewater analysis; seven-day composite samples in annual comparison windows."
        },
        {
          "label": "Estimate family",
          "value": "wand-trend-panel-2021-26"
        },
        {
          "label": "Relationship to other estimates",
          "value": "related trend evidence"
        },
        {
          "label": "Earlier estimate repeated / parent",
          "value": "No parent link asserted"
        },
        {
          "label": "Uncertainty",
          "value": "No statistical confidence interval supplied in this record."
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption-2021-to-2026/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption-2021-to-2026",
          "title": "Home Office: Wastewater analysis — estimating drug consumption, 2021 to 2026",
          "locator": "Sections 1.3 and 2; Table 1 and footnotes"
        }
      ],
      "limitations": "Sites were selected for continuity, not national representativeness. These consumption trends do not justify applying a spending adjustment to the national valuation.",
      "raw": {
        "id": "economy-wand-trends-2026",
        "title": "Wastewater trends at 16 English sites, 2021–26",
        "summary": "The October release extends consumption trends, without a new national monetary valuation.",
        "measure": "Consumption trend / method update",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "No new monetary estimate",
        "currency": null,
        "geography": "16 consistently monitored English sites",
        "reference_period": "January–April sampling windows, 2021–2026",
        "substances": [
          "Cocaine",
          "Ketamine",
          "Heroin",
          "Amphetamine",
          "MDMA",
          "Methamphetamine"
        ],
        "method": "Repeated-site wastewater analysis; seven-day composite samples in annual comparison windows.",
        "limitations": "Sites were selected for continuity, not national representativeness. These consumption trends do not justify applying a spending adjustment to the national valuation.",
        "source_url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption-2021-to-2026/wastewater-analysis-estimating-drug-consumption-2021-to-2026",
        "source_title": "Home Office: Wastewater analysis — estimating drug consumption, 2021 to 2026",
        "source_locator": "Sections 1.3 and 2; Table 1 and footnotes",
        "publication_date": "2026-10-14",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-10-16",
        "estimate_family": "wand-trend-panel-2021-26",
        "relationship": "related trend evidence",
        "parent_estimate_id": null,
        "lower_value": null,
        "upper_value": null,
        "uncertainty": null,
        "price_basis": null
      },
      "highlights": [
        "No new numerical estimate",
        "January–April sampling windows, 2021–2026"
      ],
      "record_url": "https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-wand-trends-2026.html",
      "citation": "Civil Liberties Action (2026). The illegal drugs economy: Wastewater trends at 16 English sites, 2021–26. Record economy-wand-trends-2026, version 1.2, 2026-10-20. https://cla-political-finance.copperchime4.chatgpt.site/databases/releases/2026-10-20-v1.2/records/economy/economy-wand-trends-2026.html"
    }
  ]
}